What do you mean by “look forward and reason back”?

David Yoffie (Author & Professor, Harvard Business School)

David Yoffie explains what he means by the phrase “look forward and reason back” which he describes as one of the five main strategies used by Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Andy Grove that he writes about in his book, Strategy Rules.

About this video

This idea means thinking like a chess player or game theorist — looking two or three steps ahead to anticipate the future, and then reasoning backward to decide what actions to take today. Many managers make the mistake of looking backward, focusing on past successes or current problems. Great strategists, however, focus on where their industry and company are heading and invest today to win tomorrow.

This principle involves building a clear long-term vision, setting priorities, anticipating competitors’ moves, creating barriers to entry, and identifying future customer needs — even before customers recognize them themselves. It’s not just about solving today’s problems, but preparing for tomorrow’s opportunities.

As Steve Jobs often suggested — echoing Henry Ford — customers don’t always know what they want. If Ford had asked people what they needed, they would have said a faster horse. Instead, he built the car. Similarly, breakthrough innovation comes from understanding what customers ultimately want to achieve in their lives, not just what they currently ask for.

True strategy requires anticipating major industry shifts — what we call strategic inflection points — and making the right investments today to lead the future.